The market has changed pace since the fourth quarter of 2025
The information is based on market data from mid-January 2026. If you need the latest information, please feel free to contact your account manager.
In December, we described a market under broad pressure with falling prices across the dairy sector. Since then, the trend has changed pace.
Whereas the fourth quarter of 2025 was characterised by unilateral price declines, we now see a more divided situation: milk powder is showing signs of stabilisation, while the fat and cheese markets continue to be characterised by high supply and subdued demand.
Here is an overview to help you plan your upcoming purchases on an up-to-date basis.
The market in general
Milk production in the EU remains at a high level. Farm prices have fallen significantly throughout 2025, but production has not yet responded accordingly.
At the same time, stocks have not built up to the same extent as previously, partly due to strong export activity. This means that the market can react more quickly, if the balance between supply and demand changes.
In other words, the market is no longer in a one-sided decline – but it is not stable either.
Raw milk
- High supply supported by good production conditions.
- Falling farm prices.
- No clear signs of production reduction yet.
Skimmed milk powder
- Minor price increases recorded since the turn of the year to 2026 and now more balanced.
- Strong export activity.
- Limited stockpiling.
Whole milk powder
- The EU has regained competitiveness in export markets.
- Global competition from New Zealand continues.
- Since the turn of the year, the market has shown the first signs of improved sentiment and rising prices.
Cream
- Significant price decline since the summer of 2025 due to high milk supply.
- The market was further weakened by imports of cheap milk fat from the USA.
- Since the turn of the year, prices have normalised after the extreme weakness during the Christmas period. The market is still seeking a new balance, but the bottom is considered to have been passed, and expectations for the second quarter point to higher price levels.
Butter
- The market reached its lowest point towards the end of 2025.
- Seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter exacerbated the price pressure.
- Since the turn of the year, the market has moved away from its low point, and expectations for the second quarter of 2026 point to a better balance between supply and demand.
Cheese
- Stabilised earlier than cream.
- Demand increased at lower price levels.
- The market now appears more balanced, but continues to be affected by the total milk supply.
We are closely monitoring developments and are happy to advise you on how this may affect your purchasing and planning.